Vancouver: Environment and Climate Change Canada’s latest global mean temperature forecast indicates that 2026 will likely be among the hottest years on record, comparable to 2023 and 2025 and approaching 2024, which remains the warmest year ever observed.
“Canadians are already experiencing the impacts of a changing climate, from extreme heat to increased risks to communities and infrastructure. This latest global temperature forecast provides important, science-based information to help governments, decision-makers, and communities better understand what lies ahead and plan accordingly.” Said Julie Dabrusin, Minister of the Environment, Climate Change and Nature.
Based on current modelling, the global mean temperature in 2026 is predicted to fall in the range of 1.35 °C and 1.53 °C above pre-industrial levels, meaning that global temperatures will remain at least 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels for the 13th consecutive year. Looking ahead, Canada’s long-term forecasts indicate that the period from 2026 to 2030 will likely be the hottest five-year period on record.
Produced by Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, the forecast is based on a made-in-Canada climate prediction system that provides early insight into expected global temperature conditions. This means that governments, industry, and communities can use this data with confidence while planning for the impacts of a warming climate.
The 2026 global mean temperature forecast predicts a range of 1.35 °C to 1.53 °C above pre-industrial levels (from 1850 to 1900), with a central estimate of 1.44 °C. This will be the 13th consecutive year that global temperatures exceed 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels.
To address the drivers of rising global temperatures, the Government of Canada is taking action to reduce emissions. This includes measures outlined in Budget 2025 and the Climate Competitiveness Strategy—such as the enhanced oil and gas methane and landfill methane regulations announced last month—strengthening our industrial carbon markets and cementing Canada as a clean energy superpower. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions protects human health and reduces climate impacts while supporting economic growth. These efforts help strengthen communities, protect the environment, and support Canada’s transition to a cleaner and more competitive economy.